Step 1: Project Free Cash Flow
The most recent Free Cash Flow (TTM) value is
20.11B
as of Jun 30, 2025.
We will project this out 5 years with a yearly growth
rate of
-1.65%.
Starting with 20.11B and growing at -1.65%
for 5 years, we estimate Free Cash Flow will be
18.5B.
Step 2: Project Future Diluted Shares Outstanding
The most recent Diluted Shares Outstanding value is 2.58B.
We will project this out 5 year(s) with a growth rate
of -2.4%.
Estimated Diluted Shares Outstanding: 2.28B.
Step 3: Project Future Stock Price
Using a price ratio of 34.38, formula: (Future Free Cash Flow ÷ Future Diluted Shares Outstanding)
× Price Ratio
(18.5B ÷ 2.28B) × 34.38 =
$278
Step 4: Project Future Dividends Paid
Forward dividend per share: $6.8.
Projected over 5 years with a growth rate of
4.25%, dividends add to total shareholder return.
Expected dividends in 5 years:
$37.72845979349442.
Step 5: Discount the Projected Stock Price
Projected stock price: $278.
Including dividends, total future value: $315.73.
Discounted at 10% per
year over 5 years → Fair Value:
$196.
